The Tank Dell Dilemma
December 7, 2023
Welcome to the inaugural edition of the Destination Devy Trade Of The Week! Ty (@tydeclare44) is your guide to high-quality dynasty trade analysis. In this series, we dissect intriguing trades from the Dynasty Trade Show channel on Destination Devy Discord. This week, we explore a trade involving Terry McLaurin, draft picks, and FAAB. Dogtown's team context and league settings play a crucial role in understanding the deal's value. Learn how Wins Over Replacement (WAR) metrics shed light on trade strategy and Terry McLaurin's place in a competitive lineup. Discover actionable insights for deep dynasty leagues and join the discussion to level up your fantasy game in 2023!
Welcome to the inaugural edition of the Destination Devy Trade Of The Week! My name is Ty (@tydeclare44), and I’m here to provide you with the high-quality dynasty trade content and analysis you’re craving.
In this series, we’ll dive into the nitty-gritty details of the most interesting trades taking place weekly in the Destination Devy Discord—specifically, from the Dynasty Trade Show channel. I’ll break down the players involved in our featured trade each week, the strategies employed, and my thoughts on the deal. I’ll use the powerful tools found on the Destination Devy website to help us analyze each trade, providing something deeper than player takes and clickbait content.
If you want to be a part of the incredible community here at Destination Devy and have the opportunity for your trade to be featured in this series, check out the available membership options and join the squad. Sign up for the Destination Devy discord to submit your trades, connect with fellow fantasy football enthusiasts (including me!), and take your fantasy game to the next level. Without any further ado, buckle up, and let’s dissect this week’s trade of the week.
League Format: 12 teams, Start 12, Lineup, Superflex, Tiered-Point Per Reception (0.5 PPR for running backs, 1 PPR for wide receiver, 2 PPR for tight ends), 0.25 Point Per Carry. Our Patron Dogtown confirmed there are big bonuses to Quarterback scoring.
Dogtown’s team following this trade:
QB: Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Joshua Dobbs, Tyler Huntley.
RB: Bijan Robinson, Zach Charbonnet, Khalil Herbert, Tank Bigsby, Elijah Mitchell, Rashaad Penny, Jerome Ford, Devin Singletary, Ty Chandler, Rico Dowdle, Kenny McIntosh, Salvon Ahmed, Matt Breida.
WR: Jayden Reed, Michael Gallup, Josh Reynolds.
TE: Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer, Evan Engram, Greg Dulcich, Zach Ertz, Brenton Strange, Durham Smythe.
On the surface, this deal is sending away a threshold wide receiver, Terry Mclaurin, for two 2024 second-round picks and a 30% chunk of the Free-Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB), assuming a $1000 seasonal budget. A threshold wide receiver in this particular league refers to a top-70 to 80 option at the position, considering there are a possible 84 wide receiver league-wide starters (WR1, WR2, WR3, and four Flex spots, meaning seven possible wide receiver starters per team). A quick look at Dogtown’s team reveals a severe lack of threshold options. The loss of Aaron Rodgers, the amount of youth on their roster, and the poor wide receiver room construction tells me this is a team destined for non-contention status in 2023.
Moving a 27-year-old win-now asset off of a non-contending roster for two liquid assets in the form of draft picks and further flexibility with additional FAAB in a start 12 league is a fine deal, but what does the DD War Machine tell us?
To fully comprehend the impact of this league’s settings on scoring distribution, let’s use one of my favorite tools available on the Destination Devy website: Wins Over Replacement (WAR) average over three years (2019-2022):
I’m not going to get into the specifics of what WAR is, how it is calculated, or how to use the tool. Jordan Backes, the creator of the tool does this much more eloquently in his WAR series.
There are a few important takeaways here. On average, WR10 and below will give your team more WAR than any equivalent position. WR11 averages more Wins Over Replacement than QB11, RB11 and TE11. The same holds for WR20 vs. QB/RB/TE20. Mclaurin is a strong option for a contender to target in this threshold range and should be valued as such. Considering you have to make weekly start-sit decisions, having a reliable WR/Flex option in a start-12 league matters.
How can we gauge the value difference between these threshold wide receiver options? Let’s refer back to the WAR chart. Your difference-making options like Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill will provide massive wins above replacement value, corresponding with the steep spikes on the left side of the table. As you follow the wide receiver results, the average WAR line flattens out. In 2022, the difference between WR14-21 was negligible in total WAR, with only 0.38 WAR separating this range. This trend continues on the above table until at least WR37-40.
Terry Mclaurin falls in this important but replaceable range of players. You need players in this range to be consistently competitive, but there are plenty of player options that can be a solution for your roster. If I’m Dogtown, I’m okay with gaining two second-round picks, albeit in 2025, and receiving the tools to fill the holes on their roster when they’re closer to competing. Pair this with the FAAB boost for Dogtown to grind value on the waivers throughout the year while getting points off their 2023 roster. I really like this deal, knowing the context of the format and team direction. While I would love something more substantial than two 2025 second-rounders and FAAB, I’m not sure what is available within this league market.
How do you approach moving a player like Mclaurin in a deep league like Dogtown’s? Getting a first-round pick for Scary Terry feels difficult, but I think a first-round equivalent value is warranted. Could you move Mclaurin to fill a roster need and get an additional second-round pick as leverage? Or add some excess value from your roster to tier up? I’d explore moving some of the value you have at tight end in a 2.0 premium league or one of your aging quarterbacks to move your rebuild forward. Here are some ideas:
-Nico Collins, a 2024 2nd and FAAB for Terry Mclaurin?
-Terry Mclaurin and Evan Engram for 2024 or 2025 first-round pick plus?
-Dak Prescott, Terry Mclaurin, and Khalil Herbert for Trevor Lawrence (or equivalent QB)?
-Terry Mclaurin and any third-round pick (or throw-in player) for a 2024 or 2025 first?
Let us know your thoughts on this trade in the comments, and shout out what you’d like to see in future iterations of this series. Connect with me on X or on Discord @Tydeclare44 if you have questions or want to discuss further. Stay tuned to Destination Devy for more actionable and entertaining content to DOMINATE your fantasy leagues in 2023 and beyond!
