The first night of the NFL Draft was unprecedented. Seven wide receivers, six quarterbacks, and one tight end all went off the board in a first round that saw a record 14 straight offensive players selected to start the draft. It was also the first time in draft history that six quarterbacks went in the first 12 picks. That’s enough of a preamble. Let’s get into the fantasy implications of the first round.

Quarterbacks for Everyone

Even if the exact order may not have been what we expected, all the talk about six quarterbacks being drafted in the first round came to pass.

Your dynasty QB7, per KTC dynasty rankings, Caleb Williams, went exactly where he was expected to, first overall, to a suddenly potent Bears offense. A wide receiver room of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze is impressive enough, but you also have an excellent receiving back in D’Andre Swift and a highly competent tight end in Cole Kmet. It’s not hyperbole to suggest that no rookie quarterback selected first overall in the history of the NFL has ever had better weapons. If Williams doesn’t produce as a QB1, high-end QB1, in his rookie season, it would be considered a disappointment.

As @RayGQue noted on the Destination Devy 2024 NFL Draft LIVE Round 1 stream, Jayden Daniels is the epitome of why you stack future rookie draft picks regardless of the current opinion of a draft class or a position in that draft class. Daniels wasn’t considered an elite asset this time last year, and now he’s the second overall pick in the NFL Draft and easily the 1.03 in any Superflex drafts you have upcoming. Though Daniels doesn’t quite have the firepower that Williams does, Terry McLaurin is a legit WR1 in the league and one of the better safety valves in Austin. Ekeler should help Daniels also finish as a QB1. More important than the receiving options Daniels has is the upside his rushing ability provides. Daniels ran for over 700 yards in three of his five college seasons and 2,019 yards over his final two seasons.

In a perfect world, the pre-draft consensus fantasy QB3 of this class would have been drafted by the Minnesota Vikings, but things aren’t always ideal. Instead, Drake Maye landed in New England without guaranteeing he’d be the immediate starter. His offensive coordinator, Alex Van Pelt, was an unmitigated disaster in the only season he was ever fully responsible for play calling in Buffalo, with the Bills ranking 28th in offensive points per game and 30th in both passing yards and offensive yards per game. His offensive weapons include Pop Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, and Hunter Henry. If there was one loser at the quarterback position, it was Maye and anyone who drafted him in rookie drafts held before the NFL Draft.

The Atlanta Falcons decided to take a wrench to any semblance of logic. They drafted Michael Penix as the eighth overall pick despite signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year contract of $180 million a month and a half ago. Logic dictates that a quarterback drafted this highly will be the starter in Week 1, but logic also dictates the same of a quarterback you’re paying $100 million in guarantees. We’ve held three rookie mock drafts since the Falcons drafted Penix, and he’s gone off the board at 1.06, 1.12, and 2.01, so early returns suggest the market will be soft on Penix, which could allow you to still draft him at the back end of the first round of your rookie drafts. While his ADP will certainly rise compared to pre-NFL rookie drafts, it’s unlikely he’ll be overly cost-prohibitive.

If Penix is the starter to begin 2024, or soon after, he’s got a supporting cast that should be able to prop him up to mid QB2 levels, if not low-end QB1 numbers. I don’t believe that Penix, as a prospect, would look to re-roll him almost immediately if he’s named the starter. His injury history is extensive; he tore his right ACL twice and suffered a shoulder separation in college; his advanced age (24 years old at the start of the 2024 season, and his limitations as a player, including an inability or unwillingness to use the middle of the field and his inability to anticipate throws. The NFL gods may give you a chance to sell high on a mediocre prospect, and if the opportunity does arise, you should pounce on it.

J.J. McCarthy’s situation rivals Caleb Williams. With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson (whenever he returns), it’s safe to say McCarthy will average more than the 17.8 pass attempts per game he averaged in college. Despite McCarthy’s modest counting stats, he’s a metric darling, and real-world NFL and NFL scouts love him.

McCarthy was already in the conversation for QB3 of this class, and I’d be hard-pressed to give you any reason to draft Drake Maye over him. KTC still has Maye (QB16) over McCarthy (QB18), but by mid-May, you can count on those rankings to be flipped.

Bo Nix started the most games in college football history. That is not a good thing; he bested Colt McCoy and Kellen Moores, two players with unimpressive NFL careers for that record. Nix is one of the oldest quarterbacks ever drafted in the first round. His cohorts on this list also aren’t very impressive, excluding Phil Simms and Ryan Tannehill (I’m being generous).

Courtesy of the Sporting News

I am decidedly anti-NIx, but I also recognize that in the back end of your first round of rookie drafts, you should likely select him over Xavier Worthy or Xavier Legette (I promise I don’t have something against dudes named Xavier). Similar to Penix, you may be able to flip Nix for a profit at a later date, which is more likely than expecting the same number of wide receivers in this range.

Quarterback wrap-up

Despite the shock of the Penix selection, nothing that happened in round one should shake up the ADP of these rookie quarterbacks, except for the Maye and McCarthy flip. If you roster any Bears, Commanders, or Vikings offensive skill position players, you must be relieved by adding the rookie quarterbacks. Even Atlanta fans should find a reason to be happy; it made no sense to draft Penix after signing Cousins, but at least you know the quarterback room is locked down for the first time since Matt Ryan.

There Can Only Be One

Brock Bowers was the only tight end selected in the first round. The Raiders’ selection absolutely ethered Michael Mayer as a fantasy asset. As noted on Friday night’s draft stream, the Raiders mainly ran 11 personnel under Antonio Pierce last year. Assuming they continue that trend in 2024, the tight end who will get on the field for those snaps will be Bowers, not Mayer. The overall vibe last night was disappointment that Bower landed in Las Vegas, but there were much worse landing spots. Bowers seemed to be locked in as a top-six seven pick in rookie drafts before Friday night, and if he slips at all in your drafts, you do whatever you can to move up, maybe adding an early to mid-second round rookie pick to a late first round rookie pick to move up and draft him.

Let’s Talk Receivers

Nothing changed with the top of the board. Marvin Harrison could be a WR1 in his rookie season, and the Cardinals’ selection of him likely ended any shot you had at acquiring Kyler Murray with even a slight discount. Daniel Jones has never supported a WR1, but in his defense, for the majority of his career, his receivers have been terrible (Kadarius Toney) or injured (Sterling Shepard, Kenny Golladay). Malik Nabers is not that.

Nabers has a clear pathway to a 25% target share in his rookie season, and even if the volume is inefficient based on quarterback play, it’s hard to envision him not hitting at least the 9.5 PPG threshold we need rookie wide receivers to hit.

Rome Odunze may now fall behind Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy in Superflex rookie drafts, but he should remain the class’s WR3. Sharing the field with target hogs D.J. Moore (28.9% target share in 2023) and Keenan Allen (32% target share in 2023), we’ll have to temper our expectations for Odunze in his rookie year. Odunze will have built-in insulation (please refer to JJaxon Smith-Njigba), and Allen is 32 and in the final year of his contract, so I’m not overly concerned about his situation.

The dream scenario for Brian Thomas Jr. would have been landing with a Buffalo Bills team desperately needing WR1, but landing in Jacksonville is a nice consolation. Thomas Jr. joined a Jacksonville team that averaged the seventh most pass attempts per game last year and lost Calvin Ridley Jr., who captured a 23% target share in 2023. Vacated targets are not a thing, but when targets are vacated and a talented, first-round rookie receiver is added to that team, we should expect many of those targets to find their way to the aforementioned rookie. Thomas Jr. remains my WR4 of the class.

The biggest knock on Xavier Worthy is his small frame, checking in at 5’11 and 165 lbs., but the success of similarly framed players like Devonta Smith and Tank Dell should lessen concerns. Worthy is obviously fast, setting the NFL Combine record with a 4.21 40-yard dash, and has been compared to DeSean Jackson, so talent will not be a concern. A bigger concern would be the Chiefs’ preferred method of spreading targets among their wide receivers. Hollywood Brown, Rashee Rice, and Worthy will likely limit each other’s ceilings.

I don’t like Ricky Pearsall as a prospect. His breakout age was pitiful, his dominator rating was very bad, and his college target share was aggressively okay. He’s also old—24 at the start of the 2024 season—and was the opposite of an early declare, playing five years of college ball. But he’s a first-round wide receiver in a prolific offense, so I can’t argue with anyone who drafts him in the back of the first round of rookie drafts.

Xavier Legette’s draft capital and landing spot will probably separate him from some of the other receivers who were thought to be in the same tier. Now that he’s a first-round draft pick on a team with a need for wide receivers, it’s hard to find a reason to draft AD Mitchell, Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman, etc., over Legette. I’ll admit that Legette and Pearsall’s profiles aren’t dissimilar, and my affinity for Legette is very player-takey.

Wide Receiver Wrap-Up

Again, similar to the quarterbacks, how we got there might not have been exactly as expected, but we’re right where we thought we would be. Odunze’s landing with a Chicago offense loaded with offensive weapons likely cement Harrison and Nabers as the WR1 and WR2 of the class and lock Odunze in as the WR3 at best. Harrison should also boost the value of Kyler Murray. As noted earlier, Odunze’s landing in Chicago makes Caleb Williams the best-receiving trio of any first-round rookie quarterback. Worthy, Pearsall, and Legette all have a claim to the WR5 of this class. Bryce Young’s off-season continues its upward trajectory with the addition of Legette. Added to the earlier addition of Diontae Johnson and adding about $100 million of offensive guard protection for him, the Panthers are doing everything possible to ensure Young produces.

Be mindful that things can and will likely change for some of the players above. Trades or draft picks could change the landscape of wide receiver rooms or provide additional weapons for the quarterback. We still have six more rounds that will play a part in shaping our rookie drafts, so don’t tune out just yet.